TRUMP AND CRUZ DUKE IT OUT – AT 11:05 A.M. ET:  A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal shows Donald Trump ahead in the GOP race nationally, but Ted Cruz on his heels.  From The Hill:

Trump now has the support of 27 percent of Republican primary voters, according to the poll, a portion of which was conducted after Trump called for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States.”

Actually, he called for a temporary shutdown, but facts are so boring.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) moved into second place with 22 percent, gaining 12 points.

Cruz benefited from the fall of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, pollsters say.

He also benefited from his own brilliance as a speaker and debater. 

Carson dropped 18 points in the poll, released Sunday morning, falling to fourth place in the crowded GOP presidential field. Carson was atop the last NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll in late October. Carson now is the first choice of 11 percent of GOP primary voters.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has 15 percent support, up 4 percent, to hold the third spot in the new poll.

There's a widespread belief that the contest will ultimately come down to Trump, Cruz and Rubio, and ultimately to Trump vs. either Cruz or Rubio.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, with 7 percent support, and former HP chief executive Carly Fiorina, with 5 percent, round out the top six.

COMMENT:  Carson's fall is the result of his own blunders, especially his confused reaction to the Paris attacks and the rise of ISIS.  I think Carson, who was riding high only a month ago, is now pretty much out of it. 

But predictions are almost silly at this point.  The election is 11 months away, about 20 lifetimes in politics.

December 13,  2015